Live Weather Markets Map · US daily temperature

Edge>2σ

7

Markets live

312

Net ensemble drift

−1.4°F

Last sync

02s ago

cold edge

mild · positive

warm edge

hot · high dispersion

flat / no edge

Top Opportunities sorted by |edge|

MIA

Miami daily HIGH ≥ 89°F WEATHER

ENS 91.4° · MKT $0.42 · IMP 42% · TTR 3h 14m

+18.4%

edge

PHX

Phoenix HIGH ≥ 99°F WEATHER

ENS 97.6° · MKT $0.58 · IMP 58% · TTR 2h 02m

−12.1%

edge

CHI

Chicago LOW ≤ 51°F WEATHER

ENS 49.4° · MKT $0.36 · IMP 36% · TTR 9h 21m

+9.7%

edge

DAL

Dallas HIGH ≥ 83°F WEATHER

ENS 81.0° · MKT $0.48 · IMP 48% · TTR 1h 47m

+6.3%

edge

ATL

Atlanta HIGH ≥ 86°F WEATHER

ENS 84.7° · MKT $0.52 · IMP 52% · TTR 4h 30m

+5.1%

edge

LAX

@elonmusk tweets ≥ 80 today TWEET

ENS 72 · MKT $0.39 · IMP 39% · TTR 5h 11m

+4.7%

edge

DEN

Denver precipitation > 0.10″ WEATHER

ENS 0.04″ · MKT $0.21 · IMP 21% · TTR 8h 03m

−3.8%

edge

BOS

Boston ≥ 1″ snow tonight WEATHER

ENS 0.7″ · MKT $0.44 · IMP 44% · TTR 11h 28m

+2.6%

edge

Markets tracked312

Active edges+24

Median |edge|3.4%

Best edgeMIA +18.4%

Ensemble runs (24h)2,184

Avg latency142ms

Miami · daily HIGH ≥ 89°F resolves 23:59 EDT

markets › weather › US · daily-temperature › MIA-HIGH-89 Open city dossier →

Now

87.4°F

Ensemble

91.4°F

YES price

$0.42

Edge

+18.4%

TTR

3h 14m

Ensemble Fan Chart · 138 models · 5/25/50/75/95th percentile

5–95% band

25–75% band

median (consensus)

strike: 89°F

station observed

Polymarket Order Book · YES

SideSizeTotal

0.521,2403,820

0.498202,580

0.465401,760

0.443401,220

0.43220880

$0.42 YES last · 9s ago

spread $0.02 · mid $0.41

0.40280660

0.384601,120

0.366201,740

0.348802,620

0.311,1803,800

Ensemble median91.4°F

Strike89.0°F

Model spread (σ)2.1°F

P(HIGH ≥ 89) ensemble60.4%

P(HIGH ≥ 89) market42.0%

Station bias adj.−0.3°F

Edge (YES) +18.4%

Recent Ensemble Runs · last 6 cycles

Cycle	Median	Spread	P(≥89)	Drift	Models agree
13:00Z	91.4°	2.1°	60.4%	+0.3°	112/138
07:00Z	91.1°	2.2°	58.6%	+0.2°	108/138
01:00Z	90.9°	2.4°	56.1%	+0.4°	104/138
19:00Z^-1	90.5°	2.7°	52.4%	+0.6°	96/138
13:00Z^-1	89.9°	3.0°	48.8%	+0.5°	88/138
07:00Z^-1	89.4°	3.3°	45.9%	−0.2°	82/138

Recent Trades · public CLOB

13:42:18BUY$0.42 × 420$176.40

13:41:55BUY$0.42 × 180$75.60

13:41:32SELL$0.41 × 240$98.40

13:40:48BUY$0.41 × 600$246.00

13:39:11BUY$0.40 × 320$128.00

13:37:54SELL$0.40 × 140$56.00

13:36:02BUY$0.39 × 880$343.20

Live Signals Feed · ensemble vs market, |edge| ≥ 2%

13:42:18

MIA

Miami HIGH ≥ 89°F

weather · daily-temperature

91.4°

42%

+18.4%

BUY YES

›

13:41:55

PHX

Phoenix HIGH ≥ 99°F

weather · daily-temperature

97.6°

58%

−12.1%

SELL YES

›

13:40:32

CHI

Chicago LOW ≤ 51°F

weather · daily-temperature

49.4°

36%

+9.7%

BUY YES

›

13:39:48

DAL

Dallas HIGH ≥ 83°F

weather · daily-temperature

81.0°

48%

+6.3%

BUY YES

›

13:38:11

TW

@elonmusk tweets ≥ 80 today

tweet · daily-count

72

39%

+4.7%

BUY YES

›

13:37:54

ATL

Atlanta HIGH ≥ 86°F

weather · daily-temperature

84.7°

52%

+5.1%

BUY YES

›

13:36:02

DEN

Denver precip > 0.10″

weather · daily-precip

0.04″

21%

−3.8%

SELL YES

›

13:34:45

BOS

Boston ≥ 1″ snow tonight

weather · daily-snow

0.7″

44%

+2.6%

WATCH

›

13:33:01

LAS

Vegas HIGH ≥ 82°F

weather · daily-temperature

79.2°

61%

−8.4%

SELL YES

›

13:31:18

NYC

NYC HIGH ≥ 74°F

weather · daily-temperature

72.4°

38%

+2.9%

WATCH

›

Backtester preview · 90 days · |edge| ≥ 5%

Winrate

71.4%

Net ROI

+18.2%

Trades

1,284

Max DD

−4.1%

Programmatic access · REST + WebSocket

key me_live_••••••3f8a2c

# Pull current edge signals (≥ 5%) curl "https://meteoedge.gnurlock.info/api/v1/signals?edge_min=0.05" \ -H "Authorization: Bearer $MEDGE_KEY" # Or stream live via WebSocket const ws = new WebSocket("wss://meteoedge.gnurlock.info/v1/stream"); ws.onmessage = (m) => console.log(JSON.parse(m.data));

Miami · FL · USA

25.7617° N, 80.1918° W · Station KMIA (Miami Intl) · Elev 9 ft · TZ EDT

Current

87.4°F

obs · 6m ago

Today HIGH (ens)

91.4°F

13:00Z cycle

Open markets

4

on Polymarket

90d MAE

1.4°F

ensemble error

Edge winrate

73%

past 90d, |e|≥5%

Observed history · KMIA station · daily HIGH/LOW · last 365 days

climate normal band (10–90%)

observed HIGH

observed LOW

Past markets resolved · last 30 days · Miami weather

Date	Market	Strike	Ens T−12h	Mkt T−12h	Outcome	Edge ex-post
2026-05-21	HIGH ≥ 89°F	89°F	90.8°F	$0.46	YES	+11.2%
2026-05-20	HIGH ≥ 88°F	88°F	87.4°F	$0.41	NO	+3.6%
2026-05-19	HIGH ≥ 90°F	90°F	89.1°F	$0.32	NO	+7.4%
2026-05-18	LOW ≤ 73°F	73°F	72.4°F	$0.55	YES	+8.1%
2026-05-17	HIGH ≥ 87°F	87°F	86.8°F	$0.51	NO	−1.2%
2026-05-16	Precip > 0.10″	0.10″	0.04″	$0.28	NO	+9.6%
2026-05-15	HIGH ≥ 89°F	89°F	91.3°F	$0.49	YES	+14.8%
2026-05-14	HIGH ≥ 88°F	88°F	88.6°F	$0.54	YES	+6.2%
2026-05-13	LOW ≤ 75°F	75°F	74.9°F	$0.62	YES	+3.8%
2026-05-12	HIGH ≥ 87°F	87°F	85.9°F	$0.38	NO	+5.4%
2026-05-11	HIGH ≥ 86°F	86°F	88.2°F	$0.58	YES	+13.1%
2026-05-10	Precip > 0.25″	0.25″	0.18″	$0.41	NO	−2.4%

Trades12

Signal won9 / 12 · 75%

Cum. edge ex-post+79.5%

Avg edge / call+6.6%

Forecast accuracy · bias per day · 90d

MAE1.4°F

RMSE1.9°F

Bias+0.2°F

≤ 2°F82%

Personal alerts · Miami only

● If |edge| on HIGH ≥ 89°F > 8% for ≥ 5 min EMAIL · WEBHOOK

● If ensemble spread < 1.5°F on any market EMAIL

○ If precip ensemble > 0.20″ next 6h SLACK

Notes · local · just for you

weather × polymarket intelligence

See the edge
before the market moves.

MeteoEdge fuses 138 weather models, station-bias correction and live Polymarket order books into a single terminal — built for traders who want the signal, not the bot.

Top opportunities

MIA

Miami HIGH ≥ 89°F

+18.4%

CHI

Chicago LOW ≤ 51°F

+9.7%

DAL

Dallas HIGH ≥ 83°F

+6.3%

PHX

Phoenix HIGH ≥ 99°F

−12.1%

UPDATED 02s AGO · 312 LIVE

// What you get

A terminal, not a dashboard.

Three layers built for traders who already know how prediction markets work — and want to stop guessing the underlying probabilities.

01 / LIVE WALL

Every weather market in one glance.

Map of every active US weather market. Each city pulses by edge sign and magnitude. One click into the full ensemble + book.

02 / FAN CHART

138 models, one consensus, no guesswork.

Full ensemble fan chart with percentile bands, station bias correction, and the Polymarket strike overlayed. The whole edge story on one screen.

03 / API + WEBHOOK

Built to be programmed against.

REST + WebSocket for every signal, ensemble run and price update. Wire it to your bot, your spreadsheet, or your Slack — your move.

// Pricing

Free to look. Paid to act.

No crypto-only paywall. Stripe for cards, NOWPayments for crypto, both optional. Cancel anytime.

Watch

$0/ forever

The Wall, public — limited to 4 markets, 30-minute refresh.

Live Wall (4 markets max)
Top opportunities list (read-only)
Ensemble fan chart
Live order book
API access

Edge

$49/ month

Full terminal: every market, every model, every book.

All weather + tweet + scavenger markets
Full 138-model ensemble fan charts
Live Polymarket books overlayed
Edge alerts (email + webhook)
Backtester + API

Pro

$129/ month

For builders: API, WebSocket, full history, backtester.

Everything in Edge
REST + WebSocket API (10k rpm)
Backtester · 2 years of history
Custom signal rules + Slack push
Priority support

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The weather-market intelligence terminal. Built by traders, for traders. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

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Miami · daily HIGH ≥ 89°F resolves 23:59 EDT

Miami · FL · USA

See the edge before the market moves.

A terminal, not a dashboard.

Every weather market in one glance.

138 models, one consensus, no guesswork.

Built to be programmed against.

Free to look. Paid to act.

Product

Company

Legal

See the edge
before the market moves.